Why 10,000 Years?

Twice 10,000 years — 20,000 years ago — about a third of Earth’s land mass was covered in ice as thick as Greenland’s. The sea level was hundreds of feet lower than it is now. Most of Humanity’s 300,000-year “development” was during the waxing and waning of Ice Ages.

Earth 10,000 years ago had already emerged from the last Ice Age, and Humanity began sustained agriculture. This led to significant and multiple early civilizations roughly 5,000 years later.

Also, 10,000 years is the approximate time span of a sizeable Human population existing in North and South America. These Humans were mostly living in sustained harmony with the rest of “Nature” until the Europeans arrived, especially in the Eastern half of what is now the U.S.

Lastly, if we can last 10,000 years into the future, our very long-term future should be insured.

Sea Level Rise: A Visual Calamity

Estimates of average sea level rise by 2100 vary widely, from 3 feet to 8 feet.

Assuming just 3 feet, let’s consider the following mean state elevations:
Florida at 30 feet and Louisiana at 30 feet.

Given that neither state has mountains, between 1/20^th to 1/10^th of these state’s land mass will vanish without extraordinary means such as in New Orleans which is already below sea level. Consider some mean elevation of cities:

• Miami Beach, FL
  land area 7.69 sq mi
  mean elevation 4.4 ft

• Norfolk, VA
  land area 53.27 sq mi
  mean elevation 10 ft

Since extraordinary means would be too expensive for these sea-side cities, vast portions of these cities will not be usable by 2100.

On a shorter time scale, the world will be spending billions to mitigate a sea level rise of six inches by 2037, adding to the six-inch rise observed in the U.S. between 1956 and 2016. The rate of rise continues to accelerate, and unless the future is considered, much of this could be wasted if the sea level rise by 2050 reaches 12 inches above the 2016 level.

Scientists need to create 3 graphs of Sea Level Rise for the next 100 years: Expected, Somewhat Better and Somewhat Worse. Also, coastal maps need to be available online, coded as Red, Orange, Yellow, and Green to indicate the degree of danger.

In the Red Zone, all new development needs to stop and any mitigation needs to be minor. For example, most high-rise condominiums along the Florida’s coast will likely be in the Red Zone. If not already done, first floors need to be modified to let them be easily flooded. Any that become unsafe need to be torn down rather than repaired or rebuilt.

On a longer time scale, if the Greenland ice sheet completely melts, average Sea Level Rise will be over twenty feet. Surprisingly, relieved of this great weight, the tectonic plate on which Greenland rests will rise relative to the center of the Earth, mitigating most or all of the local rise in sea level!

There could be unknown earthquakes or volcanic activity due to this tectonic activity. If all the ice on Antarctica melts, the average Sea Level Rise will be about 200 additional feet.

Methane: 50 Times and 50%

Methane is 50 times more detrimental to Global Warming than that of carbon dioxide by weight. Also, it is 50% of the Global Warming. Yet, the emphasis on carbon dioxide is at least five times that of methane. In the last few years, there have been major technical advances in the detection of methane. This needs to be completed with much stiffer penalties against oil, and gas production for methane emissions. Tens of thousands of leaking oil and gas wells need to be sealed including those producing a few barrels of oil per day. If a natural gas distribution network in a neighborhood gets too expensive to continue to be repaired or if it is in a Sea Level Rise Red Zone, this network needs to be abandoned. In the first of these, residents should get help with the purchase of heat pumps, including geothermal.

Aquifers and Ground Water: Future be Damned

Without any cost to reflect its true value, water is being extracted from all over the world from the ground with just the cost of drilling. In parts of Louisiana, groundwater above the aquifer is sinking, which means the aquifer can never be recovered. In the Gaza Strip, well water is becoming too salty to drink. One of the worst examples is Phoenix, Arizona, a city of 1.6 million people, built on a vast desert. The city and the agriculture region surrounding it are almost totally dependent on a declining aquifer. Hugh farms are growing alfalfa to be shipped to the Middle East as cattle feed. A Taiwanese semiconductor company is building a large plant which will require tons of water per day. Intel is also building a plant. Laws need to be passed to prevent this insanity in the U.S. and around the world.

Groundwater in many locations is being polluted by oil and gas production as well as by coal ash, being saturated with water with each rain. Depending on the size and how long the power plant has been in operation, this very toxic mixture would be equivalent to a sizeable hill.

Scientists need to come up with measures on the past longevity and future demise of Aquifers and quality the of Ground Water.

Population: Africa is the Acute Problem

Due to Climate Change, the habitable capacity of Africa is declining at the same time its population is rapidly increasing. Millions are threatened with famine annually. Tens of thousands are trying to leave Africa and get to Europe, regardless of the risk. As Global Warming increases much of Africa between plus and minus 10° latitude will become much less habitable. Crops will fail. Much of Africa above north of latitude 10° is the Sahara Desert which continues to expand. The land below this 10° latitude is much smaller in comparison. Most of Africa lies between plus and minus 33° latitude. Since Atlanta, GA is about 33° North, the coolest parts of Africa are only that of coolness of Atlanta, GA! A variety of voluntary efforts are needed to help the women of Africa to have at most two children. They need to be encouraged to have them in their 30s rather than earlier. If not, many millions of Africans will simply have agonizing deaths. Some economists believe Africa will become a world powerhouse when it reaches a population of 2.5 billion later this century.

Unchecked, Global Warming will make more regions unable to sustain their populations, even if those populations are declining.

On a global scale, as indicated in other articles, scientists need to project the Earth’s Habitable Capacity for Humans for the next 100 years. A 10,000-year perspective would be helpful. If Humanity cannot voluntarily keep itself under the Habitable Maximum, it will suffer misery and death involuntarily.

Religion: Radical Fundamentalism is Dangerous

• Judaism: The assassination of Prime Minister Rabin by a radical sect doomed the two-state solution for decades, if not forever.

• Christianity: The growth of Radical White Supremacist & Christian Nationalism has helped to put U.S. democracy on its knees.

• Islam: Although 9/11 is well remembered, the quick rise of the barbaric Islamic state which conquered large parts of Syria and Iraq has almost been forgotten. There was little controversy that it had to be eliminated despite the cost.

Wealth: The Gap and Concentration is Unstable

In the U.S. and the rest of the world, the rich were heavily taxed to help pay for WWII and for the following three decades. However, the rich and their corporations gained political power and there was wave after wave of tax cuts for the rich under Reagan, Bush 1, Bush 2, and Trump. The last was aimed at the very rich. Relatively few people own the majority of the wealth. The middle class is shrinking. The lower middle class and poor are struggling because in this modern era they need cell phones, computers, and most need cars. Medical expenses and elder care are expensive. In past centuries, revolution was the result. Deficits are rising as well as the need to repair Climate Change destruction of the infrastructure. The rich need to pay their fair share or eventual calamity will result.

Weapons and War:
Total Waste of Resources and Human Life

As indicated in the previous section, as Sea Level Rise and aquifers are depleted, we need funds for repairing infrastructure rather than for destruction.

The makers of assault rifles have such high profits they have corrupted Congress and thus have more political power than 80% of the U.S. public. This is not democracy.

Consumerism: The Wrong Goal

Having most of the world’s economy depending on consumers spending more and more on the “Pursuit of Happiness” needs to be significantly reduced. Money needs to be spent on survival and education of children. Also, money needs to be redirected to the “Pursuit of the Common Good.”

Semi-Conclusion

As indicated in the items above, much of Humanity is arrogant, selfish, and greedy. Racism and fear of immigrants is a way too much a way of life for too many people.

Now that Trump has won in 2024, it has been policy to ignore Climate Change out of spite, and declare it to be a lie. The next ten years will be a sustained calamity for Humanity unless enough of us “wake up.”

The Next 100 Years Likely to be
a Period of Trial and Tribulation

Regardless, the most of Humanity either does not give a damn about the next 10,000 years or is too busy surviving to care.

Let us now transition to a different perspective to help with our possible survival.

Why Does All This Matter?

Compared to the 200,000,000 year reign of the dinosaurs, the accomplishments of Humanity’s 300,000 years is incredible. Consider our progress with Art, Music, Science, and Technology. Looking more closely at Astronomy, we know that this Universe is 13.8 billion years old. We know the closest star is the sun. Even though most of the Universe is rapidly expanding, our local neighbor of 3 galaxies is not. The Andromeda galaxy is speeding towards the Milky Way at one quarter million miles per hour. This speed will continue to increase and the two galaxies will eventually become one in about 4.5 billion years, after a lot of interactions.

We May be God’s Only Intelligent Creation

If we look at the craters on the Moon and Mars, our Universe is very violent over time. Our twin planet, Venus, should have been named Hades. Evidence indicates it could have been hit hard by something big that prevented life from forming and left the surface of over 800̊ F. Any life and significant water likely vanished from Mars at least a billion years ago.

If the meteorite that killed off the dinosaurs was somewhat smaller, they might have resumed their reign. If it had been somewhat longer, the placenta reproducing rodents, from which we evolved, would likely have perished. Geneticists tell us that the human population shrunk to less than 2000 individuals during our development. With other environmental changes, such as a longer last Ice Age, might have enabled other Hominids, like Neanderthals to eliminate us by “competition.”

Plato, the ancient Greek philosopher, said:

“There have been, and will be again, many destructions of mankind arising out of many causes; the greatest have been brought about by the agencies of fire and water, and other lesser ones by innumerable other causes.”

19 Comet Fragments Impacting Jupiter

The numerous telescopic images of these series of comet fragments impacting Jupiter were incredible and reminded us of the dangers of space. Some of the disturbances of Jupiter’s atmosphere were as large as the Earth.

Numerous Accounts of a Huge Flood

In addition to the description of the flood in the Bible’s Old Testament, descriptions from other civilizations have their own account of a massive flood. From the Bible account, we read about 40 days and nights of rain and Noah’s Ark coming to rest on a mountaintop.

Was the End of the Last Ice Age Relativity Quick?

There is evidence that several comet fragments impacted the area of the South China Sea around 10,000 years ago. Their impact in the atmosphere could have instantly warmed it. Significant quantities of ocean water could have evaporated, huge amounts of warm water high into the atmosphere. Interaction with lower cooler air would caused huge amounts of rain.

This rain and the warm atmosphere would have started a rapid rate of melting of all the ice sheets. Stone Age settlements along river banks would have been quickly submerged. Later as the sea level rose, this destruction would happened in all coastal regions. The Bible says that God promised not to destroy the earth again with a flood.

IT IS UP TO US TO DO IT THIS TIME if sea level rise is at 200 feet.

There would obviously be fewer date rapes, fewer unwanted pregnancies, fewer abortions, and fewer unwanted babies. The goal of each male and each female having At Most Two Children would be enhanced.

With our current patriarchal and legalistic society, how many single moms just give up trying to get child support from the male who caused her pregnancy? She may not want to see the S.O.B. in court. If she does, she often gets tired of watching the opposing lawyers bleed both sides dry with a “wink and nod” protracted litigation.

Biological Birth Certificate from Father’s DNA

The first step in addressing these two issues is a Biological Birth Certification (BBC).

The father would be determined by comparing his DNA to that of the baby. As a legal document, this BBC would contain the name and Social Security Number of the father.

Before continuing, nothing that follows would affect married couples raising their children as a family. Also, situations with the one parent missing voluntarily and consistently providing reasonable child support would not be affected.

A Child Support Fund to help Single Moms

A Child Support Fund, along with associated Federal Legislation, would be created.

A single Mom, not wanting to deal with a deadbeat Dad, could ask to receive automatic payments to support the child. The payments would be for approximately one third of the amount to support the child based on local cost of living. One third is suggested to avoid the contesting of the amounts. These amounts would automatically become loans to the missing Dad. The loan administration would be similar to the current Federal Student Loan program. The Dad’s loan repayment would be based upon the income of the Dad but would increase between the ages of 40 and 65 to make reasonably sure the loan was paid off before 65. Of course, there would be many more details to work out such as the operation of fertility clinics and surrogate Moms.

As a teenager, you may become aware of how your present life might have been much different without the direct compassion given to you or without the indirect compassion given to your parents or perhaps grandparents. Immediately in a small way, you should show kindness to others in need. Later, you may have the fortune to have an education and a successful career. The more successful, the more should be your obligation to show compassion to others in need.

Or in another word: Grace received should later be Grace given.

The First Problem:

Given our egos and belief in self-sufficiency, we may be reluctant to follow this rule.

The Second Problem:

A child or teenager may have no idea of the compassion given by others to their parents that has made their life so pleasant.

Grace needs a chance to be passed forward. Parents and grandparents at the appropriate time need to tell their children of the grace they have received from others. For example: “If Aunt Sally hadn’t helped us so much with the second mortgage on this house two years ago, we would have had to move into an apartment across town, and you would have to attend a high school with a bad reputation.”

These graphs should:

• cover the time period from years 2000 to 2100, and be updated each year,

• each show three curves, for High, Low, and Medium (or “most likely”) estimates,

• with an 80% chance that the actual future measurements will be between the low and high estimates, like a projected envelope of the path of a hurricane.

1. Average Sea Level Rise

This is the most visible, the easiest to understand, and the longest-lasting effect of Climate Change. There is little chance of significant sea level decline for centuries.

• Average sea level rise needs emphasis because of geographical variation. Sea level is currently rising by about 1/7 inch per year, to a total of about a foot from 1880 to 2020, according to the Sea Level Rise Interagency Task Force, including NOAA, NASA, the EPA, and USGS. For 2100 they project three possible total average sea level rise from the current level: 1 foot, 3.25 feet, or 6.5 feet.

• A rise of about 8 inches before 2000 means our coastal infrastructure was partially compromised prior to the range in the graph below. Most of the world’s coastal infrastructure was built or planned before 1950 with the assumption of no rising sea level, and the 2012 effect of Hurricane Sandy was the devastating result.

The task force provided a valuable service in indicating three outcomes for 2100. However, the shape of the graph getting to these numbers is critical:

• The “L” graph looks like it is close to having an inflection point, meaning it will become concave downward early next century. Thus, in the last half of the 21st century it would be possible for the amount sea level rise return to fractions of one inch per year, as in the 20th century.

• In contrast, the “H” graph has increasing exponential growth, meaning we may have reached a tipping point, and the Greenland ice cap may be gone within the next century, with a sea level rise of 20 feet by 2200.

If these shapes were reversed, they would tell an entirely different story.

2. Preventable Methane Leakage

Methane has about 50 times the effect on Global Warming and is responsible for about 50% of it. Most of the preventable methane leakage is the byproduct of inadequate production procedures by the oil and gas industry. The amount is small compared to using fossil fuels for energy, but is more preventable.

This graph should help to apply political pressure on governments to compel the oil and gas industry to spend a small fraction of their profits on stopping this leakage:

100% represents the year 2000’s level of leakage.

• The hypothetical “H” graph indicates the petroleum industry’s continued greed, in not significantly helping to reduce Global Warming. In the 1950s this industry helped dismantle the electric trolleys and electric buses in many metropolitan USA cities. Millions had shorter lives due to diesel buses. Even though industry scientists were the first to understand the extent of Global Warming due to their products, in 2003 they killed GM’s EV1 (an innovative electric car introduced in 1996) after Al Gore was not elected President in 2000.

• The hypothetical “L” graph in contrast is about the best we can hope for only if countries bring the petroleum industry to its knees.

3. Earth’s Habitable Capacity

For thousands of years, the Earth’s Habitable Capacity for humans has been mostly expanding. (However, in the last half of the 1800s, the agriculture of Europe became incapable of supporting its population.) This led to millions coming to the U.S. and the Western Hemisphere.

In contrast, now Climate Change is causing a sustained decline in Earth’s Habitable Capacity. Floods, droughts, forest fires, and hurricanes are a few causes. A sizeable portion of immigration into Europe, the U.S., and Canada result from other regions’ inability to support their populations. In some cases, these are “failed states.”

This will likely be the hardest for scientists to derive three alternatives because of all the variables involved. The main variable is what would be an “expected” average standard of living. Do we want the world’s economies to continue to be dependent on a large percentage of humans remaining in poverty to serve the needs of the rich?

That variable aside, why else are my guesses of sustainable population so low?

Because humanity is consuming and polluting Earth’s resources as if there is no tomorrow, much less a day after tomorrow. Let us name just two of them.

• Fresh waters, aquifers, ground water, and glaciers: All of these are being depleted with no thought of the future or their economic value. Some will never recover. Himalayan glaciers supply water for billions of people.

• Farmlands, bad farming, erosion, and urban sprawl: Farmland and its topsoil have declined in quantity and quality. More fertilizer has to be used. Fertilizer production requires lots of energy.

Accordingly, all three graphs show a decline from 2000 given the hemorrhaging of people all over the world due to Climate Change. Each graph will need to begin to level off as the Earth’s Habitable Capacity becomes more in balance.

4. Population

The following is the U.N.’s demographic data for the world’s past, present, and future as of 2022:

Note this data is updated regularly as more information is obtained.

Habitable Capacity vs. Population

For this graph, the M for Capacity crosses the U.N. Population Graph around 2030:

What is likely to happen after these curves cross? The longer the time after they cross, the more suffering and death will likely occur. Also, because of this, the future U.N. predictions will need to be significantly revised downward.

Overpopulation is a reality, if not now, then clearly before 2100. If we don’t voluntarily take steps to curb population growth, we will suffer involuntary population decline.

Please Have at Most Two Children

This is the prescription of many articles on this website. As opposed to the 1960s and 1970s, the emphasis is on please.

There needs to be a campaign to help people understand this simple concept: Each person being responsible for at most two children is better for the children’s success as well as the sustainability of humanity.

If adapted, how will this work? Although the population will continue the rise for decades, given many people are responsible for just one child or none, the world’s population will eventually peak and begin its decline sooner than the current forecast.

3 Numbers for the Long-Term Population Sustainability of Humanity

My hypothetical estimates are:

• High: 7 billion (2011)

• Medium: 5 billion (1987)

• Low: 3 billion (1960)

(The years indicated above are when the world’s population first reached these levels of population, more than doubling between 1960 and 2011. A net difference of 51 years is well below a human’s life expectancy!)

Once determined and publicized by scientists, these estimates hopefully will be of shock value for humanity to change course.

Inevitability of Sea Level Rise

I return to this first theme because it will have a detrimental effect on all other concerns. Whatever sea level rise occurs, it will likely be irreversible for centuries.

SCIENTISTS, FOR HUMANITY’S SAKE, please produce the SPECIFIED GRAPH IN 2025 and have it “published” widely!

A proposed standard graph already exists in various forms from various agencies. These agencies need to come to a consensus and annually distribute an updated graph on a day in the spring designated as “Sea Level Rise Day.”

Does humanity want a reasonably “pleasant” future for this century, to say nothing of the following centuries? If so, we need to stop multiplying like rabbits, or like goats on an uninhabited Galapagos island.

(Unfortunately, this condition is only necessary. Given all of humanity’s other problems, it is far from sufficient.)

The five main latitude regions of Earth’s surface comprise geographical zones, divided by the major circles of latitude. The differences between them relate to climate. They are as follows:

1. The North Frigid Zone, between the North Pole at 90° N and the Arctic Circle at 66°33′48.7" N, covers 4.12% of Earth's surface.

2. The North Temperate Zone, between the Arctic Circle at 66°33′48.7" N and the Tropic of Cancer at 23°26'11.3" N, covers 25.99% of Earth’s surface.

3. The Torrid Zone, between the Tropic of Cancer at 23°26'11.3" N and the Tropic of Capricorn at 23°26'11.3" S, covers 39.78% of Earth’s surface.

4. The South Temperate Zone, between the Tropic of Capricorn at 23°26'11.3" S and the Antarctic Circle at 66°33'48.7" S, covers 25.99% of Earth’s surface.

5. The South Frigid Zone, from the Antarctic Circle at 66°33'48.7" S and the South Pole at 90° S, covers 4.12% of Earth’s surface.

The third zone is also called the tropics:

The tropics are the regions of Earth surrounding the Equator.

They are defined in latitude by the Tropic of Cancer in the Northern Hemisphere at 23°26′10.4″ (or 23.43621°) N and the Tropic of Capricorn in the Southern Hemisphere at 23°26′10.4″ (or 23.43621°) S.

The tropics are also referred to as the tropical zone and the torrid zone.

For our warming earth, these traditional temperature zones are entirely too wide.

The North Temperate Zone contains both Anchorage (61.2°) and Miami (25.6°), with the lowest 20° of this zone from May to late August baked by the sun being directly overhead of the Tropic of Cancer on June 21st.

A reasoned approach, using facts, is designed to help convince decision makers for the need to make a change.

This article will focus on the Northern Hemisphere (NH) since this is where 90% of humanity lives. The Southern Hemisphere may be regarded as a mirror image.

Since the angle of the sun is the first determination of temperature, these zones need to be bounded by circles of latitude.

Role of the Equator

The Equator needs to be the center of a symmetric zone extending into the NH and the Southern Hemisphere. This zone cannot be from the Tropic of Capricorn to the Tropic of Cancer (each of which is of 23.5° from the Equator) because A 47°-wide zone covers a huge amount of the surface of the Earth (39.78%) and has too much variation in temperature.

What should be northern latitude boundary of the first zone? The simplest solution is to divide 23.5° in half and get 11.75°.

Role of the Tropic of Cancer, 23.5° Latitude

This latitude is where the sun is directly overhead at noon local time at the summer solstice. North of this latitude the sun is never directly overhead. Obviously, the Tropic of Cancer needs to be the center or the boundary of a proposed zone.

Choosing it to be the center of a zone leads immediately to a 23.5° zone centered at the Equator and a 23.5° zone centered on the tropic of Cancer. Logically this would extend to other 23.5° wide zones in the NH. The zones would be 11.75°-35.25°, 35.25°-58.75°, and 58.75°-90.00°, with the last expanded to avoid a 7.75° zone.

A 23.5° zone centered on the Equator makes perfect sense. However elsewhere these 23.5° zones have too much variation in temperature but are still better than current zones. If the Tropic of Cancer is to be a boundary, we are led to the first two zones being 0° to 11.75° and 11.75° to 23.5°. The latitude of Houston is 29.8° and Boston is 42.3°. This difference is 12.8°, most people would agree that these two cities should either be in different zones or at the extreme edges of a zone. Having zones above the Tropic of Cancer being in the neighborhood of 11.75° makes sense.

How important is the Arctic Circle, 66.5° N latitude, to be a boundary of a zone?

Before making a determination, let’s try out each for size.

If the Arctic Circle must be one of the boundaries:

The Case for Including the Arctic Circle

The day of summer solstice, the area above the Arctic Circle has sunlight all day long. The day of the winter solstice, there is no sunlight above the Arctic Circle.

The Case for Ignoring the Arctic Circle

1. Having 11.75°-wide zones has simplicity and uniformity for most of the Earth.

2. On the Arctic Circle, at noon local time at the summer solstice, the sun is only 43° above the horizon. Given the sun’s very low angle most of the time, the temperature difference between 66.5° and 70.5° is likely more influenced by other climate factors.

3. If 70.5° is used, a considerable portion of the land above the Arctic Circle would be included in this zone. If global warming gets more out of control, this land will become more habitable for humanity.

Of course, some official organization will need to make the decision.

(If both of these “narrow” zones are rejected, the “powers that be” need to seriously consider the mostly 23.5° wide zones, which in the NH are: 0.00°-11.25°, 11.25°-35.25°, 35.25°-58.75°, and 58.75°-90.00°. For the Earth as a whole, this would be 7 zones in comparison to the current 5.)

Significance of these Fixed Temperature Zones

Humanity is already at risk in the combined Red Zones for famine and the need to leave the zone. Unless people are close for the coast or at elevation above 2000 feet, future condition could become unbearable. In the Western Hemisphere, the combined Red Zone extends from almost Lima Peru to Costa Rica. It includes much of the Amazon basin. If much more of the Amazon forest is cut down, its local climate could collapse, meaning it would collapse. The Red Zone in Africa is more level without high mountains. It includes most of Sub-Sahara. Further east we have the lowest part of Southeast Aria and Indonesia. The two Orange Zones will be next on the chopping block of human misery. In contrast, the Green and Blue Zones will become more habitable for humanity.

NH Variable Temperature Zones

Instead of these zones being fixed and just an average, they could follow the sun from being directly overhead at the March equinox to being directly overhead at the Tropic of Cancer (23.5° N) at the summer solstice. It would then decline back to the Equator, etc. An algorithm could determine each day’s zones.

The additional narrow 7.75° white zone at the equinoxes disappears long before the summer solstice. However, it expands to 31.25° wide at the winter solstice, and includes almost all of Alaska.

Bogota’s Seasons, 4.6° Latitude

As we saw earlier, there is a double-humped hot season centered at the June solstice.

Conclusion

This concludes this article’s formal presentation of these color-coded temperature zones for the heating Earth into the market place of ideas.

If you want to see a version of these rainbow zones on your cell phone, please pass this article on to friends so it will eventually reach a policy maker.

Appendix 1: Video of Transitions

Even of these color zones are not adopted, a video of the Variable Zones would be educationally beneficial. Let a globe of the Earth rotate about every 10 seconds. Projected on this global would be the Variable Zones starting at the March equinox. They would slowly move up to the June solstice then down twice and then back to the beginning. This speed of movement would be similar to the Y coordinate of Y=sin(X).

Appendix 2: Possibility of More Variability

NH Variable Temperature Zones with an Average Lag to the Sun’s Angle

In the U.S. we are aware of the temperature generally being coldest in the latter part of January than at the winter solstice around December 21st. Similarly, the temperature is generally being hottest in late July than at the summer solstice around June 21st. Subjectively, this lag is about 4 weeks. In the tropics this lag is likely less than 2 weeks. In Alaska, this is likely at least 5 weeks. Is the relative lag less at each equinox versus each solstice? Once an overall global average lag is determined, it could be incorporated into the “motion” of the Variable Temperature Zones.

NH Variable Temperature Zones with a Variable lag to the Sun’s Angle.

Using data and computer software, the amount of lag could vary by time of year as necessary. Also, the variable by latitude could be accomplished by varying both boundaries of the zones (mostly 11.75⁰) wide by a few degrees.

Appendix 3: Lesser-Known Facts about Seasons

Equator’s Different Seasons

There are two very hot seasons centered over each equinox when the sun is directly overhead at noon local time. These of course are six months apart. The sun at each solstice is 23.5° off vertical in opposite directions. Seasons centered on the Equator would be just hot.

11.75° Latitude Unique Seasons

Beginning at the March equinox, the sun would be 11.75° off vertical at noon local time. This would shrink to 0° in about 6 weeks. Later, the maximum off vertical would be at the June solstice at 11.75° in the opposite direction. This is one long hot season which we can begin to call summer.

Transition of the Seasons Crossing the Equator

Children are taught in elementary school, “The Seasons in the Southern Hemisphere are opposite those of the Northern Hemisphere.” This is less than completely true because it leads to an impossibility at the Equator. We need to add to the qualification, “except close to the Equator.” More completely, at any time during the year, a season in the Northern Hemisphere gradually and continuously transforms itself, over around 20° latitude, into the opposite season in the Southern Hemisphere.

Currently the world is pursuing a plan with two possible components:

1. Climate Crisis: Mainly through technology, the world needs to reduce the emissions of greenhouse gases so the accumulated gases will sufficiently dissipate to avoid uncontrollable climate change in the latter half of the 21st century.

2. Population: Is not part of the plan because it is associated with racism.

Many scientists believe Plan A is failing and may completely fail.

The Climate Crisis under Plan A

The three largest national contributors to greenhouse gases are not meeting needed targets:

1. China’s main focus of world domination has been delayed by having focused on COVID-19.

2. In the U.S., instead of Al Gore, we got Bush 2’s multiple disasters. Obama’s slight progress was more than reversed by Trump.

3. India is consumed with meeting the growing aspirations of its large population which continues to increase.

After the Great Recession and the acute COVID-19 effects, the increasing population is chasing too few goods and services, resulting in worldwide inflation. China and India, representing a third of the world’s population, have failed to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and may be helping Russia behind the scenes.

Population under Plan A

According the a recent U.N. report, world population is projected to be 9 billion in 2040 and possibly exceeding 10 billion as of 2060.

The declining rate of population growth, due to aging and other natural causes, is also being influenced by the following:

The Gates Foundation, some NGOs, and some countries are promoting women’s education and the voluntary use of contraceptives. Counter to this is China’s reversal of its “one child” policy to now “at most three children.” The U.N. projects China’s population to decline from the current 1.44 billion to 1 billion around 2100.

Given China’s World domination goals, how likely is this to happen? Can we expect China to start enforcing “at least two children per family" in Han Chinese families?

Considering the above, by 2040, one ninth of the population will be produced by additional people in just 18 years. The greenhouse gases generated by these additional people will likely be less than one ninth but still significant.

Even though the rate of growth of the world’s population is decreasing, each subsequent year’s rate is being applied to a larger population. Thus, based on U.N. data, over 60 million people per year will be added through the year 2040 along with all the greenhouse gases they generate.

Assuming 60 million additional people per year and a decline of the Earth’s habitable capacity at 50 million per year, after these two cross the population will be exceeding habitable capacity by at least 110 million a year or over 1.1 billion in 10 years.

Plan A’s Apocalyptic Consequences

If we do not change course to a Plan B, what are the likely effects on the biosphere?

The Arctic Ocean will be free of ice in the late summer. Most of the Greenland ice cap will melt and a small portion of the Antarctica ice cap as well, raising the ocean level at least a foot. All the calamities we are now experiencing will increase in intensity and frequency.

Turning to the impact on people, if we don’t change our course, let’s use the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse (with the last one taken from an alternate list):

1. Death: Many people will simply die when population exceeds habitable capacity, due to the changes in the biosphere mentioned above. More will die as a result of the following three horsemen. All this death could make the U.N. forecast of population irrelevant after 2070.

2. Famine: The world is already experiencing unprecedented famine. The Russian war in Ukraine will make things worse in the short term. Long term, we should expect massive crop failures due to heat.

3. War: We have had Russian war crimes in Chechnya, Georgia, Syria and Ukraine. Also, recent wars in Rwanda, Bosnia, Ethiopia and Yemen. Will there be future wars over resources such as water? Much habitat has been destroyed in these listed wars, and its replacement will produce more greenhouse gases.

4. Plague: As plagues go, COVID-19 and its variants was mild. Going back in time, polio in children in the ’50s and ’60s was worse and Spanish Flu was devastating to those under 25 starting in 1918. In the Middle Ages, the Black Plague killed over half the population in Europe. What happens if something like a highly infectious Ebola emerges which takes two years to develop a vaccine? There can also be plagues of plants like the Irish potato famine beginning in 1845 and the die-off of chestnut trees in the U.S. in the mid 20th century. What happens if something similar happens to corn, wheat, soy beans, or rice? We also have present and future plagues affecting domestic animals, such as chickens being infected with bird flu.

In addition, immigration pressures from hot regions to cooler will likely become much higher than present, with the political torment that will result.

Plan B

Here is a partial alternative:

Climate Crisis

We obviously need continued pressure to do what is possible to reduce greenhouse gases as in Plan A.

Beyond this, we need to plan for a biosphere with a declining habitable capacity for humans. For example:

• We need to plan for a one-foot rise in sea level by year X where X is revised as new data is analyzed. This means no rebuilding of structures destroyed by hurricanes in this new “ocean flood plain.”

• Massive research is needed for heat and drought resistant sources of food.

Population

We here have some hope, leverage to improve humanity’s fate with greater impact than Climate Crisis efforts. The simple solution is a worldwide adoption of:

Please at most 2 children per family to reduce the suffering and death of future generations.

As explained in a previous article, our population could peak at roughly 1 billion lower, and decades earlier, than is currently forecast.

If humanity has the intelligence to create the James Webb Telescope, do we have the intelligence to save ourselves?

PleaseAtMost2.org

Our Habitable Capacity II

The effects of the climate crisis have a “baked in” momentum causing a decline in Earth’s habitable capacity. The billions spent on curbing greenhouse gases is almost exclusively aimed at keeping climate change from being out of control in the last half of this century and the next. Our track record of doing this is poor at best…

Read more

3 years ago · Dr. James C. Kropa

Steps like a 55-mph speed limit and plane tickets being partially based on the combined weight of the passenger and their luggage, which might have some effect in five to ten years, are just not going to happen. Thus, logically, the only way to answer the question of how to avoid exceeding Earth’s habitable capacity is to begin to reduce the rate of growth of our population, which for this year is 1.09%. Prior to suggesting how this might be done, we need to review some history.

History of “overpopulation”

In 1960 the world’s population was 3.03 billion, but increased to 4.46 billion in 1980, a 47% increase. The world was in a crisis. If this increase had continued at the same rate, in 2000 the population would have been 6.56 billion and in 2020, 9.64 billion. At 4% more and to the end of 2022, we would have 10 billion compared to 8 billion.

Given the limited access to resources and technology, in the ’60s and ’70s this severe problem was called “overpopulation” and was widely discussed, even in college courses. At least two episodes of the original Star Trek were on this topic. That problem was “solved” by the heavy use of new and more effective contraceptives including the pill. However, use of contraception was deemed to be too coercive, especially for black and brown people. (In China from 1980 to 2015, contraceptive use was very coercive, but the world couldn’t have cared less.) As a result, this term of “overpopulation” was tainted with racism.

Thus, for the past 30 years in the mainstream media, I have not read an article, watched a TV segment, or listened to a radio segment on the subject of overpopulation. The IPCC report in August 2021 only barely “hinted” at it.

Given this history, attempts at trying to reduce the rate of growth of the world’s population must be strictly voluntary and uniformly applied to all the peoples of the world. If an attempt needs to be “tested” first, this should be done in a developed country, not a developing one to avoid being labeled as “racism.”

Reducing average family size

Melinda Gates in a TED talk in 2020 talked about how for the past 250 years, as a natural part of the development process, the average size of families was reduced. Also, the slow process of this in Sub-Saharan Africa and in parts of South Asia can be enhanced by the free and reliable distribution of contraceptives on request.

Unfortunately, in the U.S., the country with the most resources to do this, reactionary forces lead by the Supreme Court will likely in a few years allow some states restrict the use of contraceptives.

Thus, what has worked in the past will likely continue to be too slow in developing regions, and the decline in habitable capacity could lead to millions being at risk in these regions.

We need to be open to new ideas which may seem unrealistic at first. In this light, the peoples of the world over time have almost completely rejected the former common practice of polygamy, reduced prostitution, and advanced women’s rights in ways which in the past would have seemed unrealistic.

What needs to change now is the following still current assumption:

A married couple has the right to have as many children as they want, possibly subject to one or more of the following; tradition, religion, their desire, what they can afford, or what government will partly support.

To avoid a drastic reduction in habitable capacity, this needs to be replaced by:

A married couple has the right to have at most two children, their replacement with in the population. Having additional children should be considered irresponsible because of the suffering and death of future generations.

Developed countries and young people should lead the way

An additional reason this needs to be done first in developed countries is the following: If we consider resources such as water, refrigerant, greenhouse gases, air pollution, and solid waste, their production by the average person in a developed country is manyfold higher than that of the average person in a developing country.

For a mild example, Habitat for Humanity is currently in sad shape in the U.S. The U.S. has a deficit in the millions of safe affordable housing for young families, poor people, homeless, and legal immigrants such as Haitians, Afghans, and Ukrainians, to say nothing about the other kind of immigrants. As a result, rents and the cost of all housing is increasing at an unsustainable rate. Although the 21% increase in population in the U.S. from 2007 through 2022 is not the only reason for this situation, it is significant.

Rephrasing what we must do:

Please, at most 2 children so most of their children will not die before having their own children.

Young people are frustrated in not being able to do anything about the dire prospects of the climate crisis. Here is something they can do; plan to limit the size of their families.

What could be the results of a successful campaign for “Please at Most 2?”

Although demographers will need to tell us, there is a likelihood the rate of increase in population will decline to zero much sooner than forecast to happen in 2100 with a population of 10.2 billion. We may be able to significantly reduce the amount of the world’s population exceeding habitable capacity.

Specifically, the world’s population might peak at 9 billion or 9.5 billion around 2050 and start slowly decreasing thereafter. The reason for this is due to some couples having no children or one child.

If we do not do something, much of the world, between plus or minus 15 degrees latitude, could look like the current Sri Lanka or Haiti by 2050 if not by 2040.

PleaseAtMost2.org

Our Habitable Capacity I

Scientists who monitor the effects of greenhouse gases on Earth’s biosphere are frustrated with the people of the world as well as with the U.S. Supreme Court’s lack of understanding of the peril we are facing. I believe this is partly due to the weak words used. “Climate change” should be “climate crisis” and “global warming” should be “global heating…

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3 years ago · Dr. James C. Kropa

In contrast, each of the words in the phrase “habitable capacity” is well understood by the general public.

If one looks on the web, scientists have estimated Earth’s habitable capacity in the past. These estimates vary widely. Around half of them indicate our habitable capacity is less than 8 billion, higher than the estimated total population of humans in early 2023. Particularly for the many studies done prior to the climate crisis being “noticeable,” was there any consideration given to the quality of human habitation with the reality of millions of people existing in pathetic housing in the sprawling slums of big cities in most of the developing world, as well as millions of refugees?

Urgency to project new estimates of habitable capacity

The U.N. or a foundation needs to task a couple of dozen appropriate scientists to take a month or two to individually answer the question: What is the earth’s current habitable capacity? For humanity to have one number to focus on, a majority of these scientists must agree the estimated current habitable capacity is X billion plus or minus 1 billion. Next, they should forecast the estimate to be Y billion plus or minus 1 billion in 2030 and Z billion plus or minus 1.25 billion in 2050.

Given what the entire world is experiencing — such as extended heat and droughts, forest fires, floods, and storms year-round — habitable capacity will be in decline for the foreseeable future, making Y less than X, and Z considerably less than Y.

Rather than waiting for this to be done, let’s speculate with a high conservative estimate of X being 9 billion at the end of 2023. Let’s also speculate that until 2050 the earths habitable capacity will only decline by a paltry 50 million per year:

• Y then is 9-7(0.05) = 8.65 billion and

• Z then is 8.65-20(0.05) = 7.65 billion, less than our current population.

The U.N. world population forecast is 8 billion for 2022 and over 9.1 billion for 2040.

Just scratching the surface of this concept, we easily see the risk of the world’s population exceeding habitable capacity in the first half of the 21st century. Once this happens and the gap widens, the people of the world face uncertain calamities much worse than the present.

PleaseAtMost2.org

Our Habitable Capacity II

The effects of the climate crisis have a “baked in” momentum causing a decline in Earth’s habitable capacity. The billions spent on curbing greenhouse gases is almost exclusively aimed at keeping climate change from being out of control in the last half of this century and the next. Our track record of doing this is poor at best…

Read more

3 years ago · Dr. James C. Kropa

If the world continues to fail in meeting greenhouse gas reduction goals, then at some point the world’s increasing population will exceed the Earth’s rapid decline in its habitable capacity. As this gap widens, millions will suffer, hundreds of thousands will involuntarily die, and millions will want to immigrate.

To help mitigate the consequences of this “if,” a new and additional action is needed. Humanity needs to voluntarily reduce the rate of growth of its population below what is currently forecast. To avoid the taint of racism, this action needs to be voluntarily and universally applied. The purpose of this Substack is to begin a campaign for the following:

Families, please have at most 2 children because the Earth’s Habitable Capacity is in sustained decline due to Climate Change.

Such an action means people at most replacing themselves within the population.

As explained in this article, even if this were immediately adopted, the world’s population would continue to increase for decades, but considerably less than currently forecast.