Do we Give a Damn About Humanity’s Next 10,000 Years?
If so, new decisions for the next 10 and 100 years are needed for: Sea Level Rise, Methane, Aquifers, Population, Religion, Wealth, Weapons, and Consumerism. So far, the answer is NO.
The topics chosen are to stimulate readers’ imagination and concern in an unconventional manner. Being comprehensive or even “balanced” is not attempted in this short article.
Why 10,000 Years?
Twice 10,000 years — 20,000 years ago — about a third of Earth’s land mass was covered in ice as thick as Greenland’s. The sea level was hundreds of feet lower than it is now. Most of Humanity’s 300,000-year “development” was during the waxing and waning of Ice Ages.
Earth 10,000 years ago had already emerged from the last Ice Age, and Humanity began sustained agriculture. This led to significant and multiple early civilizations roughly 5,000 years later.
Also, 10,000 years is the approximate time span of a sizeable Human population existing in North and South America. These Humans were mostly living in sustained harmony with the rest of “Nature” until the Europeans arrived, especially in the Eastern half of what is now the U.S.
Lastly, if we can last 10,000 years into the future, our very long-term future should be insured.
Sea Level Rise: A Visual Calamity
Estimates of average sea level rise by 2100 vary widely, from 3 feet to 8 feet.
Assuming just 3 feet, let’s consider the following mean state elevations:
Florida at 30 feet and Louisiana at 30 feet.
Given that neither state has mountains, between 1/20th to 1/10th of these state’s land mass will vanish without extraordinary means such as in New Orleans which is already below sea level. Consider some mean elevation of cities:
Miami Beach, FL
land area 7.69 sq mi
mean elevation 4.4 ftNorfolk, VA
land area 53.27 sq mi
mean elevation 10 ft
Since extraordinary means would be too expensive for these sea-side cities, vast portions of these cities will not be usable by 2100.
On a shorter time scale, the world will be spending billions to mitigate a sea level rise of six inches by 2037, adding to the six-inch rise observed in the U.S. between 1956 and 2016. The rate of rise continues to accelerate, and unless the future is considered, much of this could be wasted if the sea level rise by 2050 reaches 12 inches above the 2016 level.
Scientists need to create 3 graphs of Sea Level Rise for the next 100 years: Expected, Somewhat Better and Somewhat Worse. Also, coastal maps need to be available online, coded as Red, Orange, Yellow, and Green to indicate the degree of danger.
In the Red Zone, all new development needs to stop and any mitigation needs to be minor. For example, most high-rise condominiums along the Florida’s coast will likely be in the Red Zone. If not already done, first floors need to be modified to let them be easily flooded. Any that become unsafe need to be torn down rather than repaired or rebuilt.
On a longer time scale, if the Greenland ice sheet completely melts, average Sea Level Rise will be over twenty feet. Surprisingly, relieved of this great weight, the tectonic plate on which Greenland rests will rise relative to the center of the Earth, mitigating most or all of the local rise in sea level!
There could be unknown earthquakes or volcanic activity due to this tectonic activity. If all the ice on Antarctica melts, the average Sea Level Rise will be about 200 additional feet.
Methane: 50 Times and 50%
Methane is 50 times more detrimental to Global Warming than that of carbon dioxide by weight. Also, it is 50% of the Global Warming. Yet, the emphasis on carbon dioxide is at least five times that of methane. In the last few years, there have been major technical advances in the detection of methane. This needs to be completed with much stiffer penalties against oil, and gas production for methane emissions. Tens of thousands of leaking oil and gas wells need to be sealed including those producing a few barrels of oil per day. If a natural gas distribution network in a neighborhood gets too expensive to continue to be repaired or if it is in a Sea Level Rise Red Zone, this network needs to be abandoned. In the first of these, residents should get help with the purchase of heat pumps, including geothermal.
Aquifers and Ground Water: Future be Damned
Without any cost to reflect its true value, water is being extracted from all over the world from the ground with just the cost of drilling. In parts of Louisiana, groundwater above the aquifer is sinking, which means the aquifer can never be recovered. In the Gaza Strip, well water is becoming too salty to drink. One of the worst examples is Phoenix, Arizona, a city of 1.6 million people, built on a vast desert. The city and the agriculture region surrounding it are almost totally dependent on a declining aquifer. Hugh farms are growing alfalfa to be shipped to the Middle East as cattle feed. A Taiwanese semiconductor company is building a large plant which will require tons of water per day. Intel is also building a plant. Laws need to be passed to prevent this insanity in the U.S. and around the world.
Groundwater in many locations is being polluted by oil and gas production as well as by coal ash, being saturated with water with each rain. Depending on the size and how long the power plant has been in operation, this very toxic mixture would be equivalent to a sizeable hill.
Scientists need to come up with measures on the past longevity and future demise of Aquifers and quality the of Ground Water.
Population: Africa is the Acute Problem
Due to Climate Change, the habitable capacity of Africa is declining at the same time its population is rapidly increasing. Millions are threatened with famine annually. Tens of thousands are trying to leave Africa and get to Europe, regardless of the risk. As Global Warming increases much of Africa between plus and minus 10° latitude will become much less habitable. Crops will fail. Much of Africa above north of latitude 10° is the Sahara Desert which continues to expand. The land below this 10° latitude is much smaller in comparison. Most of Africa lies between plus and minus 33° latitude. Since Atlanta, GA is about 33° North, the coolest parts of Africa are only that of coolness of Atlanta, GA! A variety of voluntary efforts are needed to help the women of Africa to have at most two children. They need to be encouraged to have them in their 30s rather than earlier. If not, many millions of Africans will simply have agonizing deaths. Some economists believe Africa will become a world powerhouse when it reaches a population of 2.5 billion later this century.
Unchecked, Global Warming will make more regions unable to sustain their populations, even if those populations are declining.
On a global scale, as indicated in other articles, scientists need to project the Earth’s Habitable Capacity for Humans for the next 100 years. A 10,000-year perspective would be helpful. If Humanity cannot voluntarily keep itself under the Habitable Maximum, it will suffer misery and death involuntarily.
Religion: Radical Fundamentalism is Dangerous
Judaism: The assassination of Prime Minister Rabin by a radical sect doomed the two-state solution for decades, if not forever.
Christianity: The growth of Radical White Supremacist & Christian Nationalism has helped to put U.S. democracy on its knees.
Islam: Although 9/11 is well remembered, the quick rise of the barbaric Islamic state which conquered large parts of Syria and Iraq has almost been forgotten. There was little controversy that it had to be eliminated despite the cost.
Wealth: The Gap and Concentration is Unstable
In the U.S. and the rest of the world, the rich were heavily taxed to help pay for WWII and for the following three decades. However, the rich and their corporations gained political power and there was wave after wave of tax cuts for the rich under Reagan, Bush 1, Bush 2, and Trump. The last was aimed at the very rich. Relatively few people own the majority of the wealth. The middle class is shrinking. The lower middle class and poor are struggling because in this modern era they need cell phones, computers, and most need cars. Medical expenses and elder care are expensive. In past centuries, revolution was the result. Deficits are rising as well as the need to repair Climate Change destruction of the infrastructure. The rich need to pay their fair share or eventual calamity will result.
Weapons and War:
Total Waste of Resources and Human Life
As indicated in the previous section, as Sea Level Rise and aquifers are depleted, we need funds for repairing infrastructure rather than for destruction.
The makers of assault rifles have such high profits they have corrupted Congress and thus have more political power than 80% of the U.S. public. This is not democracy.
Consumerism: The Wrong Goal
Having most of the world’s economy depending on consumers spending more and more on the “Pursuit of Happiness” needs to be significantly reduced. Money needs to be spent on survival and education of children. Also, money needs to be redirected to the “Pursuit of the Common Good.”
Semi-Conclusion
As indicated in the items above, much of Humanity is arrogant, selfish, and greedy. Racism and fear of immigrants is a way too much a way of life for too many people.
Now that Trump has won in 2024, it has been policy to ignore Climate Change out of spite, and declare it to be a lie. The next ten years will be a sustained calamity for Humanity unless enough of us “wake up.”
The Next 100 Years Likely to be
a Period of Trial and Tribulation
Regardless, the most of Humanity either does not give a damn about the next 10,000 years or is too busy surviving to care.
Let us now transition to a different perspective to help with our possible survival.
Why Does All This Matter?
Compared to the 200,000,000 year reign of the dinosaurs, the accomplishments of Humanity’s 300,000 years is incredible. Consider our progress with Art, Music, Science, and Technology. Looking more closely at Astronomy, we know that this Universe is 13.8 billion years old. We know the closest star is the sun. Even though most of the Universe is rapidly expanding, our local neighbor of 3 galaxies is not. The Andromeda galaxy is speeding towards the Milky Way at one quarter million miles per hour. This speed will continue to increase and the two galaxies will eventually become one in about 4.5 billion years, after a lot of interactions.
We May be God’s Only Intelligent Creation
If we look at the craters on the Moon and Mars, our Universe is very violent over time. Our twin planet, Venus, should have been named Hades. Evidence indicates it could have been hit hard by something big that prevented life from forming and left the surface of over 800̊ F. Any life and significant water likely vanished from Mars at least a billion years ago.
If the meteorite that killed off the dinosaurs was somewhat smaller, they might have resumed their reign. If it had been somewhat longer, the placenta reproducing rodents, from which we evolved, would likely have perished. Geneticists tell us that the human population shrunk to less than 2000 individuals during our development. With other environmental changes, such as a longer last Ice Age, might have enabled other Hominids, like Neanderthals to eliminate us by “competition.”
Plato, the ancient Greek philosopher, said:
“There have been, and will be again, many destructions of mankind arising out of many causes; the greatest have been brought about by the agencies of fire and water, and other lesser ones by innumerable other causes.”
19 Comet Fragments Impacting Jupiter
The numerous telescopic images of these series of comet fragments impacting Jupiter were incredible and reminded us of the dangers of space. Some of the disturbances of Jupiter’s atmosphere were as large as the Earth.
Numerous Accounts of a Huge Flood
In addition to the description of the flood in the Bible’s Old Testament, descriptions from other civilizations have their own account of a massive flood. From the Bible account, we read about 40 days and nights of rain and Noah’s Ark coming to rest on a mountaintop.
Was the End of the Last Ice Age Relativity Quick?
There is evidence that several comet fragments impacted the area of the South China Sea around 10,000 years ago. Their impact in the atmosphere could have instantly warmed it. Significant quantities of ocean water could have evaporated, huge amounts of warm water high into the atmosphere. Interaction with lower cooler air would caused huge amounts of rain.
This rain and the warm atmosphere would have started a rapid rate of melting of all the ice sheets. Stone Age settlements along river banks would have been quickly submerged. Later as the sea level rose, this destruction would happened in all coastal regions. The Bible says that God promised not to destroy the earth again with a flood.
IT IS UP TO US TO DO IT THIS TIME if sea level rise is at 200 feet.